Increased currency sale volumes support Tenge from excessive weakening
The third quarter kicked off for tenge with some exchange rate stabilization after a noticeable weakening in June. As a result, the average KZT exchange rate weakened by 6.07% by the end of July amid the decline in the National Fund operations in terms of currency sale volume. According to the results of July, foreign currency sales from the National Fund to ensure transfers to the republican budget amounted to $506 mln and about $984 mln as part of selling the currency to purchase Kazatomprom shares. In August, according to the forecasts of the Government, the National Fund will sell currency at similar levels of 500-600 mln. These transactions, in our opinion, support the exchange rate from excessive weakening. As we noted earlier, the level of KZT 480 per US dollar is an attractive level for market participants to sell the U.S. currency.
Background for Appreciation
Since the end of October 2023, tenge affected by increased volumes of USD sales from the National Fund began its appreciation until mid-May. During this period of time, the national currency strengthened by 8.3%, while oil fell by -4.4%, which prevents it from being an exogenous explanatory factor in forecasting the USD/KZT exchange rate.
In general, such external factors as oil, the Russian ruble and the US Dollar Index (DXY) have weak correlations with values ranging from 0.45 to 0.52 during the period from 2018 to 2023. At the same time, if we take the period from the beginning of 2023, the ratio slightly decreases, especially with the ruble and the US Dollar Index.