Outlook and Perspective on the Tenge

According to the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan (the NBRK), the average exchange rate against the U.S. dollar for the nine months of 2024 was KZT 458.7. As compared to the annual average exchange rate for 2023, there was an increase of 0.5% or KZT 2.5.  When compared to the same period of the last year (nine months of 2023), the rate showed a rise of 1.3% or KZT 5.8.

 The relatively low average value was due to favorable currency trends earlier in the year. The primary driver for the exchange rate dynamics was foreign currency sales by the National Fund (the NF). Withdrawals from the NF exceeded the planned figures outlined in the Social and Economic Development Forecast of the Republic of Kazakhstan (the SEDF) dated 3 September 2024 by KZT 300.4 billion following the results of eight months of the year, with transfer volumes for 2024 set at KZT 3.6 trillion. Meanwhile, as stated by the NBRK Governor on September 11, 2024, uncertainty remains around further NF withdrawals to cover the national budget deficit, causing an increased risk of pro-inflationary pressure and further reduction of the effectiveness of the State’s monetary policy.

Increased currency sale volumes support Tenge from excessive weakening 

The third quarter kicked off for tenge with some exchange rate stabilization after a noticeable weakening in June. As a result, the average KZT exchange rate weakened by 6.07% by the end of July amid the decline in the National Fund operations in terms of currency sale volume. According to the results of July, foreign currency sales from the National Fund to ensure transfers to the republican budget amounted to $506 mln and about $984 mln as part of selling the currency to purchase Kazatomprom shares. In August, according to the forecasts of the Government, the National Fund will sell currency at similar levels of 500-600 mln. These transactions, in our opinion, support the exchange rate from excessive weakening. As we noted earlier, the level of KZT 480 per US dollar is an attractive level for market participants to sell the U.S. currency.  

Background for Appreciation

Since the end of October 2023, tenge affected by increased volumes of USD sales from the National Fund began its appreciation until mid-May. During this period of time, the national currency strengthened by 8.3%, while oil fell by -4.4%, which prevents it from being an exogenous explanatory factor in forecasting the USD/KZT exchange rate.

In general, such external factors as oil, the Russian ruble and the US Dollar Index (DXY) have weak correlations with values ranging from 0.45 to 0.52 during the period from 2018 to 2023. At the same time, if we take the period from the beginning of 2023, the ratio slightly decreases, especially with the ruble and the US Dollar Index.