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Currency overview
Currency overview
USD/KZT Exchange Rate Overview
Background for Appreciation
Since the end of October 2023, tenge affected by increased volumes of USD sales from the National Fund began its appreciation until mid-May. During this period of time, the national currency strengthened by 8.3%, while oil fell by -4.4%, which prevents it from being an exogenous explanatory factor in forecasting the USD/KZT exchange rate.
In general, such external factors as oil, the Russian ruble and the US Dollar Index (DXY) have weak correlations with values ranging from 0.45 to 0.52 during the period from 2018 to 2023. At the same time, if we take the period from the beginning of 2023, the ratio slightly decreases, especially with the ruble and the US Dollar Index.
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