KZT/USD Exchange Rate Forecast

As of 03:30 p.m., the weighted average USD/KZT exchange rate stood at KZT 518.97. As of July 2025 the baseline average monthly exchange rate forecast is 518.97 KZT per 1 USD. 

As part of the monthly monitoring and forecasting of Kazakhstani macroeconomic indicators the Analytics and Research Department of JSC BCC Invest (BCC Invest) tracks the impact of both external and internal factors on the national economy. 

According to the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan data (the NBK), the average exchange rate in June 2025 was 514,72  KZT per1 USD. As compared to January 2025, the exchange rate strengthened by KZT 9.95 or 1.9%. 

Chart. Updated Exchange Rate Dynamics Forecast for a 12-month horizon 

Source: NBK data, BCC Invest analysis 

During the second quarter of 2025, the exchange rate forecast was updated twice. While the key conclusions remained unchanged, our scenario was revised. There are an initial forecast (dated April 7, 2025) and an updated forecast (dated May 26, 2025), and the main difference lies in the fact that due to negative factors our pessimistic scenario was mainly implemented, which was subsequently adopted as the baseline scenario. 

According to our forecasts, a gradual strengthening of Tenge was expected in April and May 2025 followed by a weakening by year end and renewed strength in the first quarter of 2026.  Generally, the forecast was confirmed: the exchange rate did strengthen in April and May 2025. However, developments unfolded were not consistent with the baseline scenario, but rather according to the pessimistic scenario, largely due to the tariff policy of the Trump administration, which created additional speculative pressure on the national currency. 

Thus, in April 2025, according to the pessimistic scenario, the average monthly exchange rate was projected at 514.4 KZT per 1 USD, while the actual value was KZT 514.5. When reviewing our forecast in May, we aimed to bring the dynamics back within the bounds of the baseline scenario — the early pessimistic forecast for May was KZT 510.0, while the updated baseline forecast was 509.7 KZT per 1 USD. However, the actual exchange rate turned out to be KZT 512.3, which still falls within the stricter pessimistic scenario. 

KZT/USD Exchange Rate Forecast 

The first half of the year has ended, and the average exchange rate was amounted to 511.64 KZT per 1 USD, which is again close to the annual values of the initial baseline scenario at 513.2 KZT per 1 USD. Upon completion of the first half of the year, BCC Invest analysts update the exchange rate forecast over the next 12 months. 

The average monthly forecast for the national currency in July 2025 is as follows: 

Optimistic scenario – 501.9 KZT per 1 USD; 

Baseline scenario – 519.1 KZT per 1 USD; 

Pessimistic scenario – 536.2 KZT per 1 USD. 

Consequently, according to the baseline scenario, a slight weakening of the national currency is expected in July compared to June’s level, by KZT 4.3, or 0.84%, assuming other conditions remain unchanged. 

Key factors determining this scenario are as follows: 

I. Global oil prices. If Brent crude remains within $70–75 per barrel, export revenues will stay stable, easing pressure on the exchange rate through the balance of currency receipts and fiscal transfers. 

II.    Geopolitical stability. Absence of new aggravations in key regions and reduction of uncertainty will support the inflow of portfolio investments, reduce volatility and prevent Tenge from sharp weakening. 

III. Budget and fiscal policy 

Planned transfers from the National Fund without significant additional spending will avoid significant currency outflows, maintaining relatively stable demand for Tenge. 

IV.    NBK monetary policy 

 Maintaining the base rate and instruments of excessive liquidity sterilisation (in particular, mirroring of gold transactions) will continue to restrain inflation and support a balanced currency market. 

According to the pessimistic scenario, a more moderate depreciation of the national currency is expected—by KZT 21.5 , or 4.14% month-over-month. Only the optimistic scenario assumes a slight appreciation of the national currency—by KZT 12.8, or 2.49% month-over-month. 

Finally, the strengthening of Tenge to the weighted average value of 518.97 KZT per 1 USD by 3:30 p.m. was due to favorable dynamics in global oil prices, the simultaneous strengthening of currencies in the region, and the prudent liquidity management by the NBK. During the next sessions, market participants’ attention will be focused on export data and decisions of the regulatory authority, therefore, despite moderate volatility, monitoring of these factors remains critical.