Gold and Silver - Key Trends and Risks
Gold
This year, among all precious metals, investors should primarily focus on gold and silver. Gold has already met our expectations by reaching our previously stated target of $3,500 per ounce. Given the current macroeconomic environment, potential for further growth remains. We expect the gold price to approach the mark of $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2025.
Highest increase/decrease in Central Bank gold reserves by countries in 2024.
Source: World Gold Council
The main growth drivers continue to be the decline in real interest rates, active reserve diversification by central banks, especially of China, India, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and other emerging markets, as well as escalating geopolitical risks and uncertainty in U.S. economic policy.
At the same time, following the rapid price increase since the beginning of the year, we anticipate the possibility of a short-term correction. However, it will be moderate and provide a good opportunity to increase positions.
Data available as of April 2025.
Source: International Monetary Fund (IFS, April 2025) and other sources.
An additional factor supporting gold is the steady inflow of funds into gold ETFs, particularly from Chinese investors. The total amount invested in gold by private investors through bars, coins, and ETFs currently stands at nearly $4.2 trillion and continues to grow, highlighting the increasing interest in gold as a hedge against stagflation, recession, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Moreover, gold has the ability to reduce the portfolio’s dependence on cyclical economic fluctuations and serves as an effective safe-haven asset during periods of sharp stock market declines.
Silver, Palladium, Platinum
Silver also has an attractive growth potential. Its demand is driven by active use in the technology sector, particularly in the production of solar panels and electronics, which in the context of the global energy transition, ensures stable industrial demand. By the end of 2025, silver may reach a price of $38 per ounce, making it an attractive addition to an investment portfolio.
This year, we recommend investors avoid investments in palladium. The primary reason is the structural decline in demand for this metal from the automotive industry, which is gradually shifting towards electric vehicles that require less palladium traditionally used in catalysts. As a result, palladium prices may decline by year-end.
As for platinum, its long-term outlook appears to be moderately positive; however, we do not expect significant growth this year. The platinum market is experiencing an oversupply, and the recovery in demand is proceeding more slowly than expected. Therefore, investments in platinum might only be justified with a longer-term horizon.
Normalized Chart of Precious Metals and the S&P 500 to compare returns. Source: Yahoo Finance
The key risks in the precious metal market are associated with the potential strengthening of the US dollar and tightening of monetary policy by major central banks, which may temporarily negatively affect the metal prices, particularly gold. It is also important to consider the risks of sudden de-escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the consequences of trade tariffs introduced, which could slow down the economic growth and increase stagflationary trends.
Thus, until the end of the year, we recommend focusing on gold and silver, being cautious with platinum and avoiding palladium. Despite the possibility of a slight correction in gold prices after a significant rise, the overall trajectory in the precious metal market remains positive.
Prepared by: Aldiyar Anuarbekov
Important Information
This material is distributed for informational purposes only. The distribution of this material does not constitute an investment advisory activity. The information contained herein is not a personalized investment recommendation.
The Recipient of this material should not rely solely on the information provided to make decisions. Calculations, historical data and other information that may be contained in this material have been prepared by JSC BCC Invest employees based on publicly available information and data. BCC Invest does not verify and has no obligation to verify the completeness, accuracy and reliability of such information.
Any information provided by BCC Invest should be used by the Customer only at the Customer’s sole discretion and risk. The information provided by JSC BCC Invest does not constitute an offer to purchase and/or an obligation sell any securities, an inducement to complete a transaction, or a recommendation to the Customer on investment, tax and legal issues, including the suitability of the transaction for the Customer’s specific objectives
Before carrying out any transactions in securities, including foreign securities, currency, and derivative financial instruments with various types of underlying assets (hereinafter referred to as "Financial Instruments"), information on which is provided by JSC BCC Invest, the Recipients of such information must review the documents that characterize the specified Financial Instruments (an issue prospectus, etc.) and to conduct comprehensive consultations with their financial, legal, tax, accounting, and other advisors before concluding a transaction in Financial Instruments.
Conclusion of transactions in Financial Instruments involves certain risks, for which JSC BCC Invest cannot be held responsible, as they are beyond the reasonable control of the Parties, and their ability to foresee and prevent the consequences of such risks is limited or impossible.
The Customer must independently assess the possibility of entering into transactions involving Financial Instruments. The Customer should not enter into a transaction if its economic and legal substance, documentation, terms and conditions, and associated risks remain unclear or inconsistent the Customer’s objectives, intentions, and expectations.
Transactions in Financial Instruments may cause significant financial and other risks. For this reason, these transactions are intended for persons who are willing to accept the risks involved and are capable of bearing possible financial losses related thereto. Before entering into any transaction, the Customer must ensure that they understand the risks associated with the relevant transaction and possess the necessary financial and other resources to fulfill the obligations assumed under any development scenario.
When making a decision to conduct a transaction in the financial market, it is necessary to take into account that investing in financial instruments carries the risk of not earning the expected returns, partial or even total loss of invested funds, as well as possible expenses and losses.
Information about anticipated positive returns may be nothing more than assumptions. Past investment performance does not determine future results, and the value of assets can both increase and decrease. Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates may also result in decreased or increased cost of investments. JSC BCC Invest makes no warranties or representations and accepts no responsibility with regard to financial results that may be obtained by the Customer based on the information used.
Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan for
Regulation and Development of
Financial Market
State License for carrying out activities in the securities market
No. 3.2.235/12 dated 10 July 2018
