Concerning USD/KZT Exchange Rate Results

According to data from the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE), July ended with the exchange rate of KZT 540.78  per USD. The monthly average exchange rate was 528.7 KZT per USD, returning to the values at the beginning of the year (524.9 KZT per USD).

The Analytics and Research Department of JSC BCC Invest (BCC Invest), as part of its monthly monitoring and forecasting of Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic indicators, tracks the impact of both external and internal factors on the national economy.

July was the most turbulent month for Kazakhstan’s currency market since the beginning of the year. The USD exchange rate rose from KZT 519.29 as of July 1 to KZT 546.36 as of July 30, meaning that the tenge weakened by KZT 21.49, or 5.2%, over the month. This represents the most significant depreciation of the tenge against the US dollar since the beginning of the year.

Earlier, BCC Invest analysts published three forecast scenarios for the average monthly USD/KZT exchange rate:

• Optimistic – 501.9;
• Baseline – 519.1;
• Pessimistic – 536.2.

In fact, the average exchange rate for July stood at KZT 528.7 per USD, which turned out to be KZT 9.7 (or 1.9%) above the baseline scenario and only KZT 7.4 (or 1.4%) below the pessimistic scenario. This indicates that the actual exchange rate dynamics shifted closer to the pessimistic forecast.

The turning point came in the second half of the month, after July 14, the exchange rate began to steadily exceed the following key levels: 525, 530, and 540 Tenge. On July 30, the exchange rate reached KZT 550 per USD. Subsequently, the National Bank announced it had entered the market with foreign exchange interventions.

Chart. Exchange Rate Dynamics and Trading Volumes on KASE in July 2025

The analysis of the trading structure shows that the main demand in the market was driven by purchases of US dollars. Net purchases dominated throughout most of the month, and occasional selling days did not alter the overall upward trend in the exchange rate.

National Bank’s position:

“The current depreciation of the tenge does not reflect fundamental factors and indicates that the national currency is undervalued. We are ready to take prompt measures to stabilize the tenge exchange rate and restore balance in the foreign exchange market”.

By the way, this intervention by the regulator was the first since the beginning of the year, which highlights the scale and unusual nature of the fluctuations.

External factors:

• global oil prices have consistently exceeded $70 per barrel;
• the trend of a global weakening of the US dollar index persists.

Until mid-month, the exchange rate fully aligned with our baseline scenario. However, starting from July 14, a clear deviation emerged, ultimately shaping the month’s outcome.

Despite this, the average annual exchange rate for 2025 remains within the forecast — at KZT 517.7 per USD, compared to the baseline forecast of KZT 521.7 per USD. Thus, the deviation amounts to only KZT 4.0, or 0.8%. 

Summary: July was marked by market anxiety and increased demand for foreign currency. In the second half of the month, the regulator initiated foreign exchange interventions to stabilize excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate. This demonstrates the National Bank’s willingness to respond promptly to deviations not driven by fundamental factors.

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