What can we expect for USD/KZT in 2026?

In 2025, USD/KZT exchange rate dynamics generally followed the baseline scenario for the tenge, showing gradual depreciation and even periods of partial appreciation in the first half of the year.

The National Bank had to conduct foreign exchange interventions totaling KZT 125.6 billion, which helped smooth exchange rate fluctuations and prevent panic‑driven depreciation of the national currency.

In addition, an important supporting factor was the National Bank’s increase in the volume of mirroring operations related to gold transactions to a record KZT 475 billion per month starting from October. Overall, high gold prices enabled the regulator to withdraw a substantial amount of liquidity, thereby supporting the national currency.

As a result, the USD/KZT exchange rate in 2025 was influenced by competing factors: on the one hand, tight monetary policy and National Bank operations restrained depreciation and contributed to temporary appreciation; on the other hand, underlying macroeconomic imbalances continued to exert pressure on the national currency.

USD/KZT exchange rate in 2025

Exchange Rate Forecast for 2026

Under our baseline scenario, oil prices are expected to gradually decline from USD 62 per barrel at the end of 2025 to USD 52 by December 2026, while relatively tight monetary policy is maintained in the first half of the year. This is expected to limit the depreciation of the tenge through a high base rate (18.0%), which supports investor demand for government securities.

In the second half of the year, starting from the summer months, the exchange rate is expected to weaken more noticeably due to the onset of the rate cut cycle, seasonal increases in demand for foreign currency, and further declines in oil prices. However, even during this period, we do not anticipate a scenario of sharp devaluation: the pressure from the oil factor is likely to be partially offset by subdued or even negative US dollar dynamics, the declining importance of the oil sector in Kazakhstan’s economy, and the gradual expansion of service exports and selected non-commodity industries, which are generating an extra, though still relatively small inflow of foreign currency earnings.

Under our baseline scenario, the average annual exchange rate in 2026 is expected to be around 530 KZT per USD, while by year‑end the exchange rate is projected to reach 553 KZT per USD.

USD/KZT exchange rate in 2026